Climate Control of Multidecadal Variability in River Discharge and Precipitation in Western Europe

The influence of large-scale climate variability on winter river discharge and precipitation across western Europe is investigated. We analyze 60 years monthly flow data from 18 major western-European rivers its relationship with dominant teleconnection patterns indices in this region. Results show that characterized by large interannual variability, best correlates (a) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) at far-northern (R up to 0.56) southern latitudes ?0.72), (b) West Pressure Anomaly (WEPA) middle northern latitudes, 42° N 55° 0.83). These also explain autumn spring secondary floods. Compared other leading modes atmospheric WEPA increases correlations 0.8 many regions central Europe. A positive corresponds a southward shift an intensification Icelandic-Low/Azores-High dipole, driving enhanced these regions. are slightly higher than those discharge, particularly France, clear latitudinal gradient. This trend suggests water storage catchment characteristics may discharge. Seasonal forecasting NAO can become powerful tool anticipating hydrological risks